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U.S. Centenarian Population Projected to Quadruple by 2054
Learn about the projected growth of the U.S. centenarian population, estimated to quadruple by 2054. Explore demographic changes and future trends.
Did you know that the number of Americans aged 100 and older is projected to quadruple in the next 30 years? According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the centenarian population is estimated to grow from 101,000 in 2024 to about 422,000 in 2054. Currently, centenarians make up just 0.03% of the U.S. population, but that is expected to increase to 0.1% by 2054. The number of centenarians in the United States has been steadily rising since 1950 when there were only 2,300 individuals aged 100 and older. This article explores the projected growth of the centenarian population and provides insights into the demographic changes that will occur in the coming decades.
U.S. Centenarian Population Projected to Quadruple by 2054
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Overview of the Projection
According to projections from the U.S. Census Bureau, the US centenarian population, i.e. the number of Americans ages 100 and older, is expected to more than quadruple over the next three decades. The current estimated population of centenarians in the U.S. is around 101,000 in 2024, projected to reach about 422,000 in 2054. This means that the percentage of centenarians in the overall U.S. population is expected to increase from 0.03% to 0.1% by 2054. The population of centenarians in the U.S. has been steadily increasing since 1950, and the rate of increase has significantly accelerated over the past three decades.
Current Population of Centenarians in the U.S.
As of 2024, there are approximately 101,000 centenarians in the U.S. This represents a small fraction of the total population, accounting for just 0.03%. However, this number is expected to grow significantly over the next 30 years.
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Trends in the U.S. Centenarian Population
The number of centenarians in the U.S. has been steadily increasing since 1950. In 1990, the U.S. Census Bureau estimated that there were around 37,000 centenarians in the country, which nearly tripled over the next three decades. The exact count of centenarians prior to the 1990 census is estimated due to identified errors in the census counts. This trend of increasing centenarian population is expected to continue in the coming years.
Methodology Used for Projection
To understand the population of Americans ages 100 and older, Pew Research Center conducted an analysis using population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and global projections from the United Nations. The projections are based on the medium variant scenario. The analysis includes single-race non-Hispanic groups, with Hispanics being considered of any race.
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Demographics of Centenarians
Today, the majority of centenarians in the U.S. are women (78%), with men making up the remaining 22%. This gender breakdown is expected to continue, although the percentage of women is projected to decrease over time. By 2054, it is estimated that women will make up 68% of the centenarian population, while men will account for 32%.
Gender Breakdown of Centenarians
In terms of racial breakdown, 77% of today’s centenarians in the U.S. are White, followed by smaller percentages of Black (8%), Asian (7%), and Hispanic (6%) individuals. Less than 1% belong to multiracial, American Indian or Alaska Native, or Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander categories. By 2054, the racial composition of the centenarian population is expected to change, with the shares of White and Asian adults decreasing, while the shares of Hispanic and Black individuals increasing.
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Racial Breakdown of Centenarians
In terms of racial breakdown, 77% of today’s centenarians in the U.S. are White, followed by smaller percentages of Black (8%), Asian (7%), and Hispanic (6%) individuals. Less than 1% belong to multiracial, American Indian or Alaska Native, or Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander categories. By 2054, the racial composition of the centenarian population is expected to change, with the shares of White and Asian adults decreasing, while the shares of Hispanic and Black individuals increasing.
Projected Aging of the U.S. Population
The overall U.S. population is expected to age significantly in the coming decades as life expectancies increase and birth rates decline. Currently, there are roughly 62 million adults aged 65 and older, accounting for 18% of the population. By 2054, it is projected that 84 million adults aged 65 and older will make up an estimated 23% of the population. Although the 65-and-older population will continue to grow, the percentage of those in their 100s is expected to double as a proportion of that age group, increasing from 0.2% in 2024 to 0.5% in 2054.
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Comparison of Centenarian Populations Worldwide
The United Nations estimates that there are around 722,000 centenarians worldwide in 2024. The U.S. has the second-largest centenarian population, estimated at 108,000, following Japan with 146,000 individuals. China, India, and Thailand round out the top five countries with the most centenarians. Although centenarians make up less than 1% of the overall population in each of these countries individually, they account for more than half (55%) of the world’s population ages 100 and older when combined.
Top Countries with Centenarian Populations
Japan has the highest number of centenarians, followed by the United States, China, India, and Thailand. However, when considering the proportion of centenarians to the total population, Japan, Thailand, and the U.S. have a higher percentage, while China and India have a smaller share due to their larger but relatively younger populations. Japan has around 12 centenarians for every 10,000 people, while Thailand has 5, and the U.S. has 3. In contrast, China and India have fewer than one centenarian for every 10,000 people.
Projected Global Centenarian Population by 2054
The global centenarian population is projected to grow to nearly 4 million by 2054. China is expected to have the largest number of centenarians, with 767,000, followed by the U.S., India, Japan, and Thailand. In terms of percentage, centenarians are projected to account for approximately 49 out of every 10,000 people in Thailand, 40 out of every 10,000 in Japan, and 14 out of every 10,000 in the U.S. China would have around 6 out of every 10,000 people who are centenarians, while India would have approximately 2 out of every 10,000.
In conclusion, the projection of the U.S. centenarian population quadrupling by 2054 indicates a significant demographic shift. The aging population is not unique to the U.S., as countries worldwide are experiencing similar trends. Understanding the demographics and projected changes in the centenarian population can aid in developing policies and programs that address the specific needs of this growing population segment.
